Suggested by Dr Bobby Waite / Written by Lewis McLain & AI

Introduction

Charles Monroe Sheldon’s In His Steps (1896) is one of the most influential works of Christian fiction ever written. Its central phrase, “What would Jesus do?”, has inspired generations to think about moral choices in everyday life. While its story takes place in a fictional town, its themes are timeless: the cost of discipleship, the tension between faith and worldly demands, and the transformation of individuals and communities when Christ’s example is followed.

This essay explores Sheldon’s life, summarizes In His Steps in depth chapter by chapter, explains the modern revival of WWJD, and closes with reflections on the book’s enduring message.

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The Author: Charles Monroe Sheldon

Sheldon (1857–1946) was a Congregational minister in Topeka, Kansas. Born in New York, he studied at Phillips Academy and Andover Theological Seminary, where he absorbed a passion for the “social gospel”—the idea that Christianity should directly address poverty, injustice, and inequality.

In Topeka, Sheldon pastored Central Congregational Church, where he pioneered a method of reading his novels aloud on Sunday nights, chapter by chapter. In His Steps was born this way, serialized in 1896 before becoming a published book that sold over 30 million copies.

Sheldon himself lived a life of quiet devotion. He advocated for racial equality, supported prohibition, and believed Christians must integrate faith into public and private life. His writing style—plain, earnest, accessible—allowed his message to spread far beyond theological circles.

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Chapter 1 – The Unwelcome Stranger

The story opens in Raymond at First Church, where Rev. Henry Maxwell is preparing his Sunday sermon. As he polishes his manuscript, a gaunt, shabby man appears at his door. This man has been wandering the town, searching for work, and has found no one willing to hire him or even hear his story. During the morning service, he stands up and interrupts the congregation, voicing a heartfelt plea: How can Christians sing hymns about following Christ and yet ignore the struggles of the poor and unemployed all around them? His words sting, laying bare the gap between faith professed and faith lived. After speaking, he collapses. A few days later, despite some aid, he dies.

Maxwell is shaken. The preacher, once content with polished sermons, suddenly confronts the reality that words without action ring hollow. The stranger’s challenge becomes the seed of a deeper movement: What would it mean if Christians really followed Jesus in their daily lives, without compromise?

Reflection: Have we grown comfortable with religion as ritual rather than relationship? The stranger’s words force us to ask if discipleship is merely something we confess on Sunday or something we embody on Monday morning.

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Chapter 2 – Rachel Winslow’s Decision

Among those moved by Maxwell’s challenge is Rachel Winslow, a gifted young singer. She receives an offer to perform professionally on the stage—a chance at fame, wealth, and admiration. But the minister’s call echoes in her heart: before making any choice, ask, “What would Jesus do?”

Rachel wrestles with the cost. She knows Jesus did not live for personal gain but to glorify the Father and serve the broken. Singing in theaters might enrich her purse but not her soul. She turns away from the contract, choosing instead to use her voice in mission halls and revival meetings. Her decision shocks her peers but inspires others in the church.

Reflection: How do we use our talents? Rachel’s struggle reminds us that every gift—whether musical, financial, or intellectual—can be employed for self-promotion or self-giving. What would Jesus have us do with what we have been entrusted?

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Chapter 3 – Edward Norman and the Press

Edward Norman, the editor of Raymond’s leading newspaper, faces his own dilemma. His paper thrives on sensationalism and gossip, catering to popular taste. Yet Norman cannot escape the challenge: if Jesus were editor, what stories would He print?

He makes the radical decision to transform the paper into a source of truth, morality, and reform. No more scandal columns or lurid illustrations. Instead, he will give space to issues of justice, faith, and social need. At once, circulation drops. Advertisers threaten to withdraw. But Norman holds fast, convinced that Jesus would not exploit human sin for profit.

Reflection: How does media shape the soul of a community? Norman’s sacrifice invites us to consider our own consumption of news and entertainment. Do we value integrity over popularity? Do we measure success by revenue or righteousness?

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Chapter 4 – Alexander Powers and the Railroad

Alexander Powers, superintendent of the railroad, uncovers corruption in the company’s management. To expose it would be to jeopardize his career, his income, and his standing. Yet again, the question cuts through: What would Jesus do?

He cannot remain silent. Powers decides to resign and make the wrongdoing known, even though it costs him dearly. His act is both protest and confession—a refusal to build comfort on a foundation of injustice.

Reflection: Integrity often comes at the cost of security. Are we willing, like Powers, to let go of worldly success in order to stand for truth? Or do we find ways to rationalize silence in the face of wrong?

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Chapter 5 – The First Circle of Disciples

By now, Maxwell has gathered a small band of church members who commit themselves to the yearlong experiment: before any decision, personal or professional, they will sincerely ask, “What would Jesus do?” and follow through. The group includes Rachel the singer, Norman the editor, Powers the railroad man, and several others from varied walks of life.

This gathering feels fragile and daring. They know they will face ridicule, misunderstanding, and loss. Yet their eyes are opened to a higher joy: the possibility that their small acts of obedience might ripple outward to change their town.

Reflection: Discipleship is not a solo act. Maxwell’s circle shows the strength found in community. Who surrounds us to encourage our walk in Christ? Do we attempt faith alone, or do we covenant with others to walk together?

Chapter 6 – The Cost of Singing for Souls

Rachel Winslow begins singing regularly at the mission hall instead of concert halls. The mission is filled with the poor, the weary, and the broken—souls hungry for beauty and hope. Her songs move them in ways money and entertainment never could. Yet her friends and acquaintances shake their heads. They see her as wasting her talent, throwing away a promising career. Rachel feels the sting of criticism but also discovers a deeper joy: she is using her gift in direct service to God.

Reflection: What is true success? The world applauds stages and contracts, but Jesus measures hearts. Rachel’s choice asks us to reconsider what it means to use our gifts “successfully.”

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Chapter 7 – The Strain of Sacrifice

The group of volunteers begins to face fatigue. Living out the principle of WWJD is harder than they expected. The cost is not only financial but emotional. They must endure gossip, misunderstandings, and the steady pressure of a culture that values ease over sacrifice. Rev. Maxwell himself feels the burden as some in the wider congregation grow restless. Is this movement too radical? Is it sustainable?

Reflection: Faith without cost is comfortable religion, but not discipleship. Do we expect Christianity to be easy? How do we respond when the path grows steep?

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Chapter 8 – Norman’s Newspaper Suffers

Edward Norman’s paper continues to decline in circulation. Readers accustomed to scandal and flashy headlines desert it. Advertisers pull support. Friends urge him to moderate his position for the sake of financial solvency. But Norman holds to his conviction: Jesus would not print lies or exploit vice. The presses roll on, even at a loss. He discovers that faithfulness often means planting seeds without seeing immediate harvest.

Reflection: Are we willing to persist in obedience when results are discouraging? Norman reminds us that faithfulness is not measured in profit margins but in eternal impact.

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Chapter 9 – Powers Confronts Rejection

Alexander Powers, who exposed corruption in the railroad, pays a high price. Former colleagues treat him as a traitor. Opportunities vanish. His once secure life becomes fragile. Yet he cannot escape a deeper peace: he has acted with a clean conscience. Still, his struggles reveal the harsh reality of living in integrity when the world rewards compromise.

Reflection: Would we rather be approved by men or by God? Powers forces us to face the loneliness that sometimes comes with obedience.

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Chapter 10 – The Mission Expands

The mission hall, supported by Maxwell’s group, becomes a beacon for the town’s poor and downtrodden. Rachel’s music, combined with preaching and practical aid, transforms lives. Drunkards sober up, families reconcile, the hopeless find new footing. Yet such change unsettles some in Raymond’s comfortable class, who view the mission as distasteful and disruptive. For the first time, the church feels the tension of choosing between respectability and radical compassion.

Reflection: Do we prefer a tidy church that avoids “messy” people, or a living church that embraces the broken? The mission challenges our priorities.

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Chapter 11 – The Circle is Tested

Within the fellowship, differences of opinion emerge. Not all interpret WWJD in the same way, and some doubt whether their sacrifices are truly worth it. Maxwell must remind them that discipleship is not about visible results or human approval but about obedience to Christ. The test of faith deepens their dependence on prayer.

Reflection: Unity is fragile without Christ at the center. When believers disagree, do we lean on prayer and humility, or do we fracture into self-will?

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Chapter 12 – New Opportunities, New Opposition

As the mission continues, stories of changed lives reach further into the community. Yet opposition grows as well. Some businessmen resent the moral pressure. Some townspeople mock the fervor. Maxwell himself feels torn between his pastoral duties to the whole congregation and the radical demands of this new path. The chapter closes with a sense of tension: the seeds of transformation are taking root, but storms are gathering.

Reflection: The Kingdom of God is always both promise and provocation. Do we expect the gospel to be welcomed without resistance?

Chapter 13 – A Church Divided

The growing influence of Maxwell’s experiment stirs both admiration and unease. Some in the congregation are inspired by the sacrificial lives of Rachel, Norman, and Powers. Others feel alienated, fearing that the church has become too radical, too focused on “social issues” instead of respectable religion. Wealthier members, in particular, grow restless at the challenge to their comfortable faith. Maxwell is faced with the reality that following Jesus inevitably divides: some are drawn closer to Him, while others resist the cost.

Reflection: What does it mean when the gospel unsettles rather than comforts? Do we see division as failure, or as the natural result of light exposing darkness?

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Chapter 14 – Rachel’s Song in the Slums

Rachel takes her music into the slums of Raymond, where crime, poverty, and despair run rampant. Her clear voice rings out in dingy halls and dirty streets, drawing crowds who might never enter a church. Hardened men weep. Broken families find hope. Yet critics scoff that such work is beneath her talent. Rachel discovers that the presence of Christ often shines brightest in the darkest places.

Reflection: Where is the Spirit calling us to sing? Are we willing to step into uncomfortable spaces if it means shining light where it is most needed?

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Chapter 15 – Norman’s Courage Strengthened

Edward Norman continues publishing his “clean” paper. Though subscriptions lag, a loyal readership begins to grow—those who value integrity, families who welcome wholesome news, reformers who see the paper as an ally. Norman realizes that Jesus’ way is slow, often hidden, but steady. His paper becomes less a business and more a ministry.

Reflection: Do we measure impact by breadth or depth? Norman reminds us that influence may be smaller in number yet greater in lasting effect when rooted in truth.

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Chapter 16 – Powers’ Quiet Witness

Though Alexander Powers has lost his position and prestige, his testimony spreads quietly. Younger men see in him an example of honesty and courage. His sacrifice becomes a seed planted in others, proving that one man’s faithfulness can inspire many. He begins to grasp that obedience has ripple effects beyond what we can see.

Reflection: Would we make hard choices if we never saw the results? Powers teaches us that obedience itself is victory, regardless of outcome.

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Chapter 17 – The Mission Grows

The mission hall becomes a center of community renewal. Former drunkards now work to help others. Children find safety and instruction. Women once exploited find dignity. Rachel and others marvel at the slow but steady transformation. The once “respectable” church begins to look more like the body of Christ—a place where the least and the lost are welcomed.

Reflection: Is our faith attractive to the poor and hurting, or only to the comfortable? A true mission church draws those who most need hope.

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Chapter 18 – Maxwell Under Fire

Rev. Maxwell himself faces sharp criticism. Some accuse him of stirring unrest, of pushing his church into impractical experiments. They argue that religion should comfort, not disrupt. Maxwell agonizes but finds strength in Christ’s words: “If anyone would come after Me, he must deny himself, take up his cross, and follow Me.” His own pastoral identity deepens: he is not just a preacher of words but a shepherd leading by costly example.

Reflection: Do we prefer leaders who soothe us or who challenge us? Maxwell’s courage reminds us that true shepherds sometimes lead through fire.

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Chapter 19 – A New Spirit in Raymond

Slowly, the whole town of Raymond begins to feel the effects. Businesses are pressured to adopt fairer practices. The poor find greater assistance. Families reform. While resistance remains, there is no denying that a spirit of honesty, compassion, and justice is stirring. The WWJD movement proves that when even a handful take Jesus seriously, a community cannot remain the same.

Reflection: Can one town be changed by a few believers? Raymond suggests that transformation begins not with masses but with a faithful remnant.

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Chapter 20 – Beyond the Town Walls

News of Raymond’s transformation begins to spread. Visitors come, curious to see what is happening. Maxwell realizes that this is no longer a local experiment but the beginning of a broader movement. The cost has been great, but the vision is widening. The Kingdom of God, once a whispered challenge, is becoming a visible witness.

Reflection: Do we see our obedience as isolated, or as part of a bigger story? Maxwell and his circle discover that faithfulness in one place can spark hope in many.

Chapter 21 – A Call to the City

The narrative shifts from the small town of Raymond to the bustling, broken city of Chicago. Here the needs are greater, the poverty more desperate, and the injustices more entrenched. Maxwell and his companions realize that the principle of What Would Jesus Do? cannot remain a local curiosity—it must confront the sprawling urban problems of the industrial age. The slums teem with children, the factories grind down workers, and greed drives wedges between classes. Chicago becomes a testing ground for whether the movement can scale beyond Raymond’s relative simplicity.

Reflection: Is our faith confined to safe spaces, or does it engage the complexity of the wider world?

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Chapter 22 – Rachel Sings in the City

Rachel Winslow takes her voice to Chicago, singing in mission halls and crowded streets. The contrast between the opulence of the theaters and the desperation of the tenements pierces her heart. Her music becomes a balm to weary souls, lifting spirits in ways applause never could. Yet again she faces mockery from those who cannot fathom why she would choose such venues over fame. Her courage in the city shows that discipleship is not about the size of the stage but the depth of the service.

Reflection: Do we reserve our best efforts for audiences that can reward us, or do we give them freely to those who cannot pay us back?

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Chapter 23 – Norman’s Paper Speaks to Injustice

Edward Norman sees in Chicago a wider canvas for his reformed newspaper. He writes against slum lords, factory abuses, and political corruption. His paper becomes a voice for the voiceless. Yet his stand draws the ire of powerful men who profit from the misery of the poor. Norman must endure not only financial strain but open threats. Still, he refuses to compromise the principle that the press must serve truth rather than exploitation.

Reflection: Is truth worth more than safety? Norman’s witness reminds us that media has the power to either sustain injustice or dismantle it.

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Chapter 24 – Powers and the Labor Struggle

Alexander Powers, already scarred by his resignation in Raymond, observes the plight of workers in Chicago. Strikes, riots, and hunger mark the labor landscape. Powers recognizes that Jesus would stand with the oppressed rather than side with profit-driven interests. He lends his voice to the cause of justice, though it costs him even more of the little stability he has left. His journey highlights that obedience to Christ is often not a single sacrifice but a continual surrender.

Reflection: Do we expect discipleship to be a one-time decision, or are we prepared for a lifetime of costly choices?

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Chapter 25 – Maxwell’s Preaching in Chicago

Rev. Maxwell preaches in Chicago with a new urgency. He does not deliver polished sermons to cushioned pews but passionate appeals in crowded halls where workers, drunkards, and the destitute gather. His words, grounded in the question WWJD, strike a chord with the disillusioned. Many are moved, but opposition is fierce. Established churches accuse him of undermining tradition; businessmen fear his influence. Maxwell discovers that preaching Christ faithfully in the city provokes both hunger and hostility.

Reflection: Does our preaching comfort the comfortable, or confront them? Maxwell’s courage asks whether we speak truth even when it unsettles the powerful.

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Chapter 26 – Seeds of Reform

The Chicago mission begins to bear fruit. Small reforms take place: children receive schooling, workers are given aid, churches awaken to neglected neighborhoods. The change is incremental but real. Maxwell and his companions marvel at how obedience in small things can build momentum in large settings. Yet the work is overwhelming; the need is always greater than the supply. They learn that following Jesus means being faithful, even when the harvest seems beyond reach.

Reflection: Do we measure our calling by what we can accomplish, or by our willingness to serve where we are placed?

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Chapter 27 – Struggles Within the Fellowship

As the mission stretches them thin, fatigue and discouragement threaten the fellowship. Some wonder if they have truly been called to such a vast, unending work. Others question whether the principle of WWJD is practical in the grit of city life. Maxwell reminds them again that the goal is not worldly success but obedience, step by step. The tension within the group mirrors the struggles of any Christian community striving to live faithfully in a hostile world.

Reflection: How do we guard unity when pressures mount? Do we hold fast to Christ or let weariness fracture our resolve?

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Chapter 28 – Rachel’s Sacrifice Deepens

Rachel faces a renewed temptation: a lucrative offer to leave the mission and return to the professional stage. The glamour of a different life beckons, especially amid the weariness of slum work. Yet she remembers her vow: What would Jesus do? Again, she chooses the mission over fame. Her decision seals her identity not as an entertainer for crowds but as a servant for Christ.

Reflection: Are we willing to re-make the same sacrifice when the temptation returns? Rachel shows that obedience is not only once but often repeated.

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Chapter 29 – A City Awakens

The message of WWJD spreads among workers, churches, and reformers. Though resistance remains, more Christians begin to take the question seriously. Chicago does not transform overnight, but a spirit of renewal begins to stir. The seeds planted by a handful of disciples in Raymond begin to take root in the soil of a great city.

Reflection: Can one small flame light a vast darkness? The story suggests it can—if that flame is Christ’s.

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Chapter 30 – The Cost Counted Again

The circle of disciples looks back on all they have lost—careers, income, reputation, comfort. Yet they also see what they have gained: lives changed, truth spoken, faith deepened, hope restored. They realize that their sacrifices, though painful, have been investments in eternity.

Reflection: Do we weigh our lives in terms of comfort lost or souls touched?

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Chapter 31 – The Call to the Reader

The novel closes by turning outward, from the fictional world to the real. Sheldon directs the challenge to us: Will we, like the Raymond fellowship, commit ourselves to live for one year by the question What would Jesus do? The reader cannot escape. The book refuses to remain story; it becomes summons.

Reflection: The final challenge is not about the past but the present. Will you take the next step in His steps?

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The Epilogue: The Modern Revival of WWJD

The phrase “What Would Jesus Do?” re-emerged a century later. In the 1990s, Christian youth movements popularized WWJD bracelets—simple cloth bands worn as daily reminders. Millions of teenagers wore them, creating a wave of evangelical energy.

This revival traced directly back to Sheldon’s novel, though often stripped of its social-gospel edge. For some, it was a fashion trend; for others, a sincere daily compass. Whether whispered in prayer or emblazoned on a wristband, the question endured as a simple yet profound moral check.

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Final Reflection

In His Steps is not great literature in style, but it is great in conviction. Sheldon forces readers to confront the gap between profession and practice. The story insists: Christianity is not just believing Jesus died for you, but living as He lived—for others, for truth, for God’s glory.

The enduring power of WWJD lies in its simplicity. The four words distill centuries of theology into a daily, personal, and practical call. It is a question that cuts across denominations, cultures, and generations. The reader cannot escape the final challenge: Will you take the next step—in His steps?

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A collaboration between Lewis McLain & AI

Economics is about more than charts and numbers. At its core, it is about how people live: whether they are free, whether they are secure, and whether they can provide for themselves and their families. Over the centuries, two broad traditions have defined the debate. The free-market thinkers argue that liberty, incentives, and voluntary exchange are the best engines of prosperity. The interventionist thinkers argue that government must step in to correct markets, protect the vulnerable, and guide society toward fairness. Both traditions arose in response to real crises and genuine human needs, but their answers could not be more different.

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🟢 Adam Smith (1723–1790): The Founder of Modern Economics

Every discussion of markets must begin with Adam Smith, the Scottish philosopher who wrote The Wealth of Nations in 1776. Smith described the economy as guided by an “invisible hand”: when individuals pursue their own self-interest, they unintentionally create benefits for others. His famous example was the butcher, the brewer, and the baker, who do not provide dinner out of kindness but out of a desire to earn a living. Yet the result is food on every table.

For Smith, prosperity did not require kings, parliaments, or central planners to decide what people should have. The natural coordination of supply and demand through prices did the job. But Smith was not only an economist of self-interest. In his earlier book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), he stressed the importance of virtue, ethics, and sympathy for others. Together, these works made him both the father of economics and an advocate of responsibility.

Smith’s vision anchors the debate: are markets left to themselves enough, or must governments take a stronger role? He also provides a bridge to the modern theme of self-sufficiency: when individuals and families take responsibility for their own choices, the entire society becomes more resilient.

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The Free-Market Thinkers

🟢 Milton Friedman (1912–2006)

Milton Friedman grew up poor in Brooklyn and rose through scholarships to become the most famous champion of free markets in 20th-century America. Unlike Rothbard, he did not reject government entirely. Friedman believed the state should protect property, enforce contracts, and perhaps provide a minimal “safety net.” But he fiercely opposed most welfare programs, which he argued trapped people in dependency.

He saw money as the key to economic stability, famously stating, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” He blamed the Federal Reserve for deepening the Great Depression by failing to stabilize the money supply. His reforms included the negative income tax (a simpler form of welfare) and school vouchers to expand parental choice. For Friedman, freedom came first, and prosperity followed.

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🟢 Friedrich Hayek (1899–1992)

Friedrich Hayek lived through the collapse of Austria-Hungary, World War I, and the rise of fascism and communism. These experiences convinced him that liberty was fragile. In The Road to Serfdom (1944), he warned that central planning, even if motivated by compassion, would inevitably erode freedom.

Hayek’s core idea was that knowledge in society is dispersed. No central planner could ever gather enough information to direct the economy better than markets could. Prices act as signals, coordinating millions of choices without coercion. His philosophy was cautionary: liberty must be preserved by keeping governments from overreaching.

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🟢 Murray Rothbard (1926–1995)

Murray Rothbard took Hayek’s and Friedman’s skepticism to its furthest conclusion. He believed government itself was illegitimate because it rested on coercion. In his system of anarcho-capitalism, even courts, police, and national defense would be privatized. Rothbard’s famous declaration was blunt: “The state is a gang of thieves writ large.”

Where Friedman accepted a minimal state and Hayek warned against overreach, Rothbard rejected the state altogether. His ideas remain controversial, but they highlight the radical edge of free-market thought.

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🟢 Thomas Sowell (1930– )

Thomas Sowell’s journey took him from Harlem poverty to the Marine Corps to Harvard and the University of Chicago. Early in life he was a Marxist, but after working inside government he came to believe that state programs failed ordinary people. Sowell’s lifelong emphasis is on incentives and unintended consequences.

He argued that welfare often undermined family stability and personal responsibility. He showed how culture and history often explain group disparities better than discrimination alone. His warning was simple: “There are no solutions. There are only trade-offs.” Like Smith, Sowell tied economics to human character — a reminder that prosperity depends on responsibility, discipline, and self-sufficiency.

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The Interventionist Thinkers

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🔴 John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946)

John Maynard Keynes transformed economics during the Great Depression. He was not a socialist — he defended markets — but he argued that markets could stagnate during prolonged periods of unemployment. His solution was for the government to borrow and spend during downturns, creating jobs and restarting demand, and then to cut back when prosperity returned.

Keynes’s legacy was saving capitalism from collapse by making government the “manager” of the economy. Where Smith’s invisible hand trusted individual choices, Keynes’s hand of policy was visible, intentional, and deliberate.

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🔴 John Kenneth Galbraith (1908–2006)

Galbraith, the Canadian-born Harvard professor, argued that mid-20th-century America suffered from “private affluence and public squalor.” People bought luxury cars and televisions while schools, infrastructure, and parks decayed. He believed advertising distorted free choice and that corporations bent markets to their will. His solution was more government investment in public goods. For Galbraith, true prosperity was measured not by what a few could buy but by what all could share.

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🔴 Gunnar Myrdal (1898–1987)

The Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal co-designed his nation’s welfare state. He believed that poverty and discrimination would not solve themselves through markets. Instead, the government had a moral duty to redistribute wealth and engineer equality. His book An American Dilemma (1944) influenced U.S. civil rights debates, highlighting the gap between American ideals and racial realities. For Myrdal, equality did not naturally emerge; it had to be created intentionally.

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🔴 Paul Samuelson (1915–2009)

Paul Samuelson, the first American Nobel laureate, popularized Keynesian economics in the classroom through his textbook. He treated government stabilization policies as routine and necessary. Samuelson believed experts could “fine-tune” the economy to prevent recessions and smooth growth. He represented the mainstreaming of Keynesian ideas — turning temporary crisis measures into long-term expectations.

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🔴 Joseph Stiglitz (1943– )

Joseph Stiglitz expanded the interventionist case by focusing on information asymmetry: the idea that one side in a deal often knows more than the other, leading to unfairness and collapse. He criticized deregulation and globalization for creating fragile systems that benefit elites while harming ordinary people. His prescription was more regulation, more redistribution, and more protection for the vulnerable. For Stiglitz, government is the referee that keeps capitalism fair.

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🔴 Thomas Piketty (1971– )

Thomas Piketty reignited debate in the 21st century with Capital in the 21st Century (2013). He argued that capitalism naturally concentrates wealth because returns on capital grow faster than the economy overall. Without strong taxation, societies drift into oligarchy — rule by the rich. His solution is progressive taxation to preserve democracy. Where Smith saw self-interest fueling growth, Piketty saw it endangering equality.

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The Natural Economic Cycle

Beyond individual policies, every economy moves through a natural cycle of growth and decline, often called the business cycle. This rhythm is tied to supply and demand and to the approach of full employment — the point where nearly all who want work can find it. During expansions, demand rises, businesses hire, and unemployment falls. As labor becomes scarce, wages and prices climb. Eventually the economy reaches a peak, where inflationary pressures grow. Then comes contraction: demand slows, businesses cut back, and unemployment rises. After the trough, recovery begins, and the cycle starts again.

This pattern is so consistent that economists chart it visually:

Phases of the Cycle:

• Expansion: Rising demand, hiring, falling unemployment.
• Peak: Economy near full employment, inflation pressures appear.
• Contraction: Falling demand, layoffs, rising unemployment.
• Trough: Output bottoms, unemployment high.
• Recovery: Demand rebounds, cycle begins anew.

If this cycle is natural, the question arises: why do governments and central banks try to smooth it out?

Reasons for Intervention

• Pain Avoidance: Recessions bring high unemployment, bankruptcies, and hardship. Leaders intervene to limit suffering.
• Political Pressure: Voters punish politicians during downturns, so governments act to “do something.”
• Belief in Expertise: Keynesians argue trained policymakers can shorten recessions and prevent depressions.
• Fear of Instability: In a global economy, one nation’s crash can ripple worldwide, so intervention is seen as necessary to avoid collapse.

The Debate

• 🔴 Interventionists (Keynes, Samuelson, Stiglitz, Piketty) argue that the human costs of long downturns are too great to leave to chance.
• 🟢 Free-marketers (Friedman, Hayek, Sowell, Rothbard) argue that interventions often cause worse long-term problems: inflation, debt, or dependency.

Thus, the cycle itself is not disputed — the argument is whether we should ride it out naturally or manipulate it in hopes of softening the blows.

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The Federal Reserve: The Great Divide

The Federal Reserve, America’s central bank created in 1913, became the lightning rod of the market vs. government debate.

• 🟢 Free-market thinkers distrusted it. Friedman wanted it constrained by strict rules. Hayek preferred competing currencies. Rothbard wanted it abolished. Sowell criticized its repeated failures.
• 🔴 Interventionist thinkers embraced it. Keynes saw it as a tool to fight recessions. Galbraith welcomed its power to balance corporations. Myrdal and Samuelson treated it as essential to the welfare state. Stiglitz wanted it reformed to fight inequality. Piketty viewed it as necessary but secondary to taxation.

Originally, the Fed’s role was mostly about banks and money. But in 1946, the Employment Act committed the government to pursue “maximum employment.” Later, the Humphrey-Hawkins Act of 1978 gave the Fed a dual mandate: keep prices stable and promote jobs. This sounds straightforward, but it creates a constant tension. Raising interest rates to control inflation often hurts jobs. Lowering rates to help jobs can fuel inflation. That impossible balancing act lies at the heart of the disagreement: should we trust markets or experts to steer the economy?

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Self-Sufficiency: From Nations to Individuals

The deeper thread running through these debates is self-sufficiency. For Adam Smith, prosperity began when individuals pursued their own interests with prudence. For Friedman and Sowell, welfare failed because it weakened personal responsibility. For Hayek, liberty was preserved only when people managed their own affairs.

Self-sufficiency applies to nations as well. A country that can feed itself, produce its own energy, and defend itself is less vulnerable to outside shocks. The oil crises of the 1970s, for example, showed the dangers of dependency.

It also applies to individuals. Families that budget, save, and live within their means are more resilient in recessions. Workers who develop new skills stay employable as economies change. Communities with strong networks — churches, civic groups, neighbors — provide help before government needs to intervene. Self-sufficiency is not isolation; it is resilience. It reduces dependency, strengthens freedom, and makes prosperity sustainable.

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Conclusion

From Smith’s Invisible Hand to Piketty’s warnings about inequality, the debate between free markets and government intervention has shaped the modern world. Both sides offer lessons. Keynes was right that governments must sometimes step in during crises. Stiglitz is right that markets sometimes fail. But history shows that free markets, anchored in liberty and strengthened by self-sufficiency, remain the surest path to prosperity.

The best model is a society where markets drive innovation, government remains lean but capable in emergencies, and individuals and families live with discipline and resilience. Such a society protects freedom, sustains prosperity, and ensures that liberty is not fragile — because it rests on self-sufficient people who can stand tall and contribute to the common good. Economic education is not just for college professors. Individuals must grasp the basics, be a willing participant, and contribute a variety of tolerance and defensive skills.

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Key Terms Explained (Alphabetical Order)

• Affluent Society: 🔴 John Kenneth Galbraith’s concept (1958) that modern capitalism can produce “private affluence and public squalor” — abundant consumer goods alongside neglected public services.
• Anarcho-Capitalism: 🟢 Murray Rothbard’s radical vision where even courts, police, and defense are privatized; government is eliminated entirely.
• Central Planning: When government authorities, not markets, decide what to produce, how to allocate resources, and at what price. Associated with the Soviet Union’s command economy.
• Dual Mandate of the Fed: Since the Employment Act of 1946 and the Humphrey–Hawkins Act of 1978, the Federal Reserve has been tasked with two goals: price stability (low inflation) and maximum employment (jobs). These can conflict — fighting inflation may reduce jobs, and boosting jobs may raise inflation.
• Free Market: An economy where prices and production are set by voluntary exchange between buyers and sellers with minimal government involvement.
• Incentives: Rewards or punishments that influence behavior. Example: higher wages encourage more work, while overly generous benefits may discourage it.
• Information Asymmetry: When one side in an exchange has more knowledge than the other (e.g., a seller knowing more than the buyer). 🔴 Joseph Stiglitz used this idea to argue for regulation.
• Monetarism: 🟢 Milton Friedman’s view that controlling the money supply is the key to controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy.
• Oligarchy: A system where a small group of wealthy elites dominate society and politics. 🔴 Thomas Piketty warned that unchecked capitalism tends toward oligarchy.
• Redistribution: The transfer of wealth from one group to another through taxation and welfare programs. Supported by 🔴 Myrdal, 🔴 Stiglitz, and 🔴 Piketty.
• Safety Net: A set of government programs designed to protect people from extreme poverty, such as unemployment benefits, food stamps, or basic healthcare. Accepted by 🟢 Friedman in lean form.
• Stagflation: A situation where the economy experiences both high inflation and high unemployment, as in the U.S. during the 1970s. It challenged Keynesian economics.
• Unintended Consequences: Unexpected effects of policies, often harmful. Example: rent control lowers rents for some but reduces overall housing supply. A central theme of 🟢 Thomas Sowell.
• Welfare State: A government system that provides broad social benefits — pensions, healthcare, unemployment aid — funded by taxation. Strongly defended by 🔴 Myrdal and 🔴 Galbraith.

A collaboration between Lewis McLain & AI

Introduction: A Book of Its Moment and Ours

Why have I, Lewis McLain, spent my career in municipal government? What was it that drew me to the public sector? A big part of my choice is directly attributed to this book. After one year in a branch of a big private sector company (Boise Cascade), where promotions meant moving, I knew I wasn’t ready for the sacrifice. I remember people jokingly saying that IBM is short for “I’ve been moved!” Then I read Toffler’s book. It scared the heck out of me. I sought a job with the City of Garland, where we lived at the time. Cities don’t have branches! LFM

Published in 1970, Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock was one of the most influential books of its generation. Toffler, a journalist turned futurist, gave words to an emerging unease: life was speeding up, choices were multiplying, and technology was accelerating change faster than people could adjust. His phrase “future shock” entered the lexicon to describe the psychological disorientation produced by “too much change in too short a period of time.” Much like a traveler overwhelmed by jet lag, whole societies were beginning to feel a kind of “time sickness.”

The book was not a narrow technological manual but a sweeping cultural diagnosis. Toffler’s aim was to alert readers that the accelerating pace of life, driven by computers, automation, new forms of media, and global connectivity, would alter not only how we work but how we think, love, and build communities.

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Alvin Toffler: A Brief Biography

Alvin Toffler (1928–2016) was born in New York City and grew up in a working-class family. After studying English at New York University, he worked as a laborer and welder before becoming a journalist. Those early years in industry gave him a firsthand view of the transformation of work and technology. Later, as a writer for publications such as Fortune, he began to explore the social and cultural impact of science and industry.

Toffler’s career blended journalism, research, and futurism. Together with his wife and intellectual partner Heidi Toffler, he developed a series of influential books—Future Shock (1970), The Third Wave (1980), and Powershift (1990)—that examined the accelerating changes of modern society. Known for his sweeping predictions and cultural diagnoses, he became one of the most widely read futurists of the 20th century. His work was translated into dozens of languages and influenced policymakers, business leaders, and educators across the globe.

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Why Toffler Wrote the Book

Toffler wrote Future Shock because he sensed a growing mismatch between human adaptability and technological progress. He had worked in factories and later as a researcher at IBM, where he saw firsthand how automation was transforming industry. He and his wife, Heidi, realized that while institutions and technologies were racing ahead, human beings were still wired for slower, steadier rhythms of life.

In his own words, “Man has a limited biological capacity for change. When this capacity is overwhelmed, the capacity is in future shock.” His mission was both descriptive and prescriptive: to describe what was happening, and to warn that societies must learn “future consciousness” to survive.

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Core Principles and Examples

One of the most important principles in Future Shock is Toffler’s idea of the acceleration of change. He noted that while in earlier centuries a new invention or a new trade might take generations to spread, by 1970 the cycle of change had compressed dramatically. Technologies were appearing and disappearing within a single lifetime, creating disorientation. He used examples such as careers that no longer lasted a lifetime and marriages that no longer endured in the same way as before. Today, the constant churn of smartphone models, rapid software updates, and the rise of gig-work platforms confirm his observation that technological and social change move faster than human beings can comfortably absorb.

Another theme in the book is what Toffler called “overchoice.” He observed that supermarkets, which once carried just a handful of cereals, were beginning to display dozens of varieties. He argued that such abundance, far from liberating people, often left them paralyzed by indecision. In modern times, we see the same phenomenon in streaming services with their endless libraries, in online dating platforms where swiping can feel overwhelming, and in online marketplaces where too many options make decision-making difficult. Choice itself can become a source of stress.

Toffler also warned about the rise of what he called the “disposable society.” This was not simply about throwaway plastic cups or paper plates, though he noted those as signs. It was also about a mentality of disposability—relationships, careers, and even values that could be cast aside when they no longer seemed convenient. Fast fashion, job-hopping, and the casual end of personal ties in the digital age show that this disposability has expanded beyond what Toffler imagined.

A further insight was Toffler’s concept of “modular man.” He believed people would increasingly live modular lives, attaching and detaching themselves from jobs, communities, and identities with little permanence. Instead of being deeply rooted in one place or one community, individuals would assemble their lives like building blocks, changing them as circumstances shifted. In our own time, this is reflected in global mobility, fluid online identities, and the constant reinvention demanded by the modern labor market.

Finally, though developed more fully in his later work The Third Wave, Toffler hinted at what he called the “high-tech, high-touch” paradox. The faster technology advanced, the more people would seek grounding in intimate, human experiences. In other words, as life became digitized and accelerated, there would be a compensating hunger for touch, presence, and slower rhythms. This is echoed in today’s wellness culture, mindfulness movements, and digital detox practices, all of which point to a longing for balance in the midst of technological saturation.

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Theological and Human Reflections

Although Future Shock is a secular work, it raises questions that touch on theology and human meaning. Communities of faith, for example, can help people resist the disorientation of accelerated change by offering stability, ritual, and timeless wisdom. The book invites reflection on whether virtues such as patience, faithfulness, and steadfastness might be even more critical in an age of flux. It also forces us to ask what balance is needed between embracing innovation and protecting the slow, deliberate work of relationships, worship, and contemplation.

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Practical “What Now?” Guide

Toffler’s warnings are even more urgent today, and his book is not only descriptive but suggestive of how people might adapt. One practical response is to cultivate what he called “future consciousness.” This means developing awareness of trends without being enslaved to them, and preparing mentally for change so that it does not always arrive as a shock. Staying informed about developments in artificial intelligence, for example, is important not to chase every novelty but to anticipate how such innovations will affect our lives and relationships.

Another practice is to build anchors of stability. Families can preserve rituals such as shared meals. Communities of faith can preserve weekly worship. Individuals can establish rhythms such as journaling or walking. These acts may seem small, but they create continuity in a sea of change.

It is also important to curate choices deliberately. In a world that constantly multiplies options, simplicity is itself a discipline. People can unsubscribe from unnecessary information streams, set limits on consumption, and consciously define what truly matters. By narrowing the field of decision-making, they recover a sense of peace.

Toffler also challenges us to value durability in an age of disposability. This might mean investing in long-term commitments such as marriage, vocation, or community service, even when the cultural tide pulls toward transience. Such commitments may feel countercultural, but they are also deeply human.

Finally, balance is essential. For every hour spent online, one might dedicate an hour to embodied presence: walking with a friend, eating together, or praying quietly. Technology can expand horizons, but it cannot replace touch, silence, or love. In this way, people can ensure that “high-tech” is matched with “high-touch.”

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Conclusion: The Prophecy Fulfilled

More than fifty years later, Future Shock feels less like a dated prophecy and more like a daily reality. Toffler’s words anticipated social media churn, rapid job disruption, the mental health crisis of overstimulation, and the dizzying pace of globalization. His essential message—that humans must consciously adapt to the speed of change without losing their humanity—remains a guidepost.

Just as Reuel Howe in The Miracle of Dialogue called us back to authentic encounter, Alvin Toffler in Future Shock calls us back to authentic stability. We cannot slow technology, but we can anchor ourselves, our families, and our communities to withstand the storm of acceleration.

A collaboration between Lewis McLain & AI

On September 24, 2025, rifle shots cracked from a rooftop in Dallas. Below, detainees were being moved at an ICE facility. One man was killed, two critically wounded. Later, investigators found an unused bullet etched with the words “ANTI-ICE.”(1) The symbolism was unmistakable: this was not random violence but an assault on a federal institution, chosen precisely because it embodies the United States’ contested immigration enforcement system.

Americans are not new to such moments. The country has experienced waves of political violence before—sometimes aimed at presidents, sometimes at government buildings, sometimes at the police who embody state power. To understand Dallas, and to grasp what may come next, we have to trace the stories of the people who pulled triggers or lit fuses, the passions that moved them, and the way their actions reverberated across the republic.

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From Riots and Anarchists to the Death of a President

The first great post–Civil War wave came in Reconstruction, when white mobs in Memphis and New Orleans (1866) attacked freedmen and federal soldiers. The perpetrators were not lone madmen but communities determined to reverse emancipation. These massacres were political messages: Washington’s power over the South would be resisted with blood.(2)

By the 1880s, a different current surged in American cities: anarchism. The Haymarket bombing of 1886 began as a peaceful labor rally, but someone hurled dynamite at the police, killing seven. The message was revolutionary: capitalist order itself was illegitimate. Fifteen years later, Leon Czolgosz, a lonely Ohio drifter enthralled by anarchist tracts, shot President William McKinley at the Buffalo Pan-American Exposition. Czolgosz declared himself an agent of the oppressed. He was executed in the electric chair within weeks, but his act imprinted the vulnerability of even the nation’s highest office.(3)

When John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas in 1963, the shooter was not an anarchist but another alienated drifter, Lee Harvey Oswald. A Marine who defected to the Soviet Union and returned disillusioned, Oswald seethed at America’s capitalism and Cuba policy. With a $20 rifle and a perch in a book depository, he ended the life of the most charismatic leader of his age. Kennedy’s death traumatized the nation, hardened Secret Service doctrine, and proved that in America, politics could be rewritten in seconds by a man with a gun.(4)

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The 1960s–70s: Assassins and Militants

The decade that followed brought more killings. Malcolm X was gunned down by rivals in 1965, his militancy turned against him. Martin Luther King Jr. was shot by James Earl Ray in 1968, an act of white supremacist vengeance against the dream of racial equality. Two months later, Robert F. Kennedy fell to Sirhan Sirhan, a Palestinian Christian enraged by Kennedy’s support for Israel.

Meanwhile, groups like the Weather Underground turned to bombings. Their leaders—Bernardine Dohrn, Bill Ayers—were children of affluence, convinced that America’s war in Vietnam and its treatment of Black citizens justified sabotage. They issued communiqués, set off bombs at the Capitol and Pentagon, and fled underground. Their goal was to awaken conscience through shock. Instead, they hardened the FBI’s resolve. COINTELPRO infiltrated, surveilled, and broke their networks until, by the 1980s, their dream of revolution had withered.(5)

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Oklahoma City, 1995: The Archetype of Anti-Federal Terror

Timothy McVeigh, a Gulf War veteran, fit a different mold. Quiet, intense, obsessed with gun rights and anti-government literature, he seethed over the FBI’s raid on the Branch Davidians at Waco. With accomplice Terry Nichols, McVeigh built a truck bomb and parked it outside the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City. On April 19, 1995, the blast killed 168 people, including 19 children in a day-care center.(6)

McVeigh was arrested within hours and executed six years later. He never repented. In his mind, he was a soldier striking back at tyranny. America responded with steel bollards, security perimeters, and new terrorism laws. But his ideology—the conviction that the federal government is the enemy—did not die with him. It migrated online, where it still lives.

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Outside Terrorist Attacks: 9/11

While not the first attack, America witnessed the deadliest terrorist attack in its history on the morning of September 11, 2001. Nineteen al-Qaeda operatives hijacked four planes, crashing two into the Twin Towers of New York’s World Trade Center, one into the Pentagon, and a fourth into a Pennsylvania field after passengers fought back. Nearly 3,000 people were killed. Unlike earlier lone-wolf or domestic attacks, 9/11 was orchestrated abroad but executed on American soil, designed to strike the nation’s symbols of commerce, military power, and political resolve. Its impact reshaped American life: the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, two decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, sweeping surveillance through the Patriot Act, and a new culture of airport and border security. If Oklahoma City was the archetype of anti-federal domestic terror, 9/11 was the archetype of global jihad striking America’s core—and its shadow still hangs over every subsequent conversation about political violence, foreign or domestic.

Sacred Spaces and Schools Under Fire

In the years after Oklahoma City and 9/11, another pattern scarred the American landscape: the rise of mass shootings in schools and churches. Columbine High School in 1999, where two students killed thirteen classmates and teachers, marked a generational turning point. It was followed by Virginia Tech in 2007, Sandy Hook Elementary in 2012, and Uvalde in 2022, where a gunman slaughtered nineteen children and two teachers while police hesitated outside. Churches, too, became sanctuaries violated: the 2015 Charleston massacre, where a white supremacist gunned down nine Black worshippers at Emanuel AME Church, and the 2017 Sutherland Springs shooting in Texas, where 26 were murdered during Sunday service. More recently, in March 2023, a former student entered the Covenant School, a private Catholic elementary school in Nashville, and killed three children and three staff members.

These attacks were not always tied to partisan politics, but they carried symbolic weight—assaults on the most sacred spaces of American life: classrooms and sanctuaries. Over time, their repetition dulled shock into grim expectation, setting the stage for a culture in which violence at symbolic sites—whether a school, a church, or an ICE facility—feels chillingly imaginable.

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The New Century: Lone Wolves and Symbolic Targets

Back to governmental attacks, the 21st century brought more “lone wolves” animated by grievance:

• Andrew Joseph Stack (2010): A frustrated software engineer who railed against taxes, he loaded his Piper Dakota with fuel and crashed it into an IRS office in Austin. He left behind a manifesto comparing the IRS to tyranny.(7)
• Willem Van Spronsen (2019): A Seattle anarchist, convinced ICE camps were “concentration camps,” attacked the Tacoma Northwest Detention Center with Molotov cocktails. He was killed by police at the gates.(8)
• Micah Johnson (2016): An Army veteran who believed police were waging war on Black men, he ambushed officers during a Dallas protest, killing five before police robots killed him with an explosive charge—the first such use in U.S. policing.(9)

Each of these men was not simply disturbed; each saw himself as acting in history’s name.

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2020s: Leaders in the Crosshairs

The last half-decade has added another dimension: direct attacks on political leaders.

• Donald Trump (Butler, PA, July 2024): A gunman opened fire from a rooftop, grazing Trump’s ear and killing a rally attendee. Secret Service admitted grave security lapses, prompting major reforms.(10)
• Donald Trump (West Palm Beach golf course, July 2025): Less than a year later, another assailant tried to target Trump during a morning round of golf. Secret Service agents spotted him early and neutralized the threat. That near-miss underscored the constant danger stalking political figures, even in seemingly private leisure spaces.
• Charlie Kirk (Utah Valley University, Sept 2025): A rising conservative voice, founder of Turning Point USA, Kirk was shot by a leftist gunman while addressing students. To admirers, he became an instant martyr, canonized in eulogies from President Trump down to college students who saw him as a mentor.(11)
• Dallas ICE (Sept 2025): Just two weeks later, the state itself—through ICE—was attacked. The shooter’s bullet, engraved “ANTI-ICE,” left no doubt of his motive.(1)

This sequence shows how the personal and the institutional now intersect. Leaders are hunted as symbols. Federal agencies are attacked as proxies. The violence is no longer episodic; it is converging.

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International Parallels

Other democracies show how this can evolve:

• Italy’s Years of Lead (1970s–80s): Leftist Red Brigades kidnapped and killed former prime minister Aldo Moro. Right-wing cells bombed train stations. Violence became chronic until prosecutions and public disgust finally choked it out.
• Germany’s RAF (Baader–Meinhof): A clique of intellectual radicals waged kidnappings and killings until the state ground them down and their own political allies turned away.
• Northern Ireland Troubles: Decades of tit-for-tat bombings and assassinations show how cycles become generational unless political settlement interrupts them.

The warning for America is stark: if partisans come to view violence as normal, the republic risks entering a long twilight of chronic bloodshed.

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Are We at the Peak?

The evidence says no. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that incidents tied to demonstrations surged from just 2% of domestic terror cases in 2019 to over half in 2021.(12) The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which tracks political violence worldwide, counted 22,900 political violence and protest events in the United States during 2020 alone.(13) The START Global Terrorism Database shows that while most terror in America since 1970 has been non-lethal, the rare deadly outliers—Oklahoma City and 9/11—reshaped the country.(14) Analysts now warn that with ICE facilities under fire and leaders like Kirk and Trump directly targeted, America has entered a “higher baseline” of risk.(15)

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How These Waves End—or Don’t

History offers clues, but never guarantees.

Institutions harden.
After JFK was killed in Dallas, the Secret Service transformed presidential protection—no more slow convertible rides through open plazas. After Oklahoma City, federal buildings sprouted concrete barriers and stand-off distances. After Butler in 2024, counter-sniper doctrine was rewritten, and at West Palm Beach in 2025, those new protocols likely prevented Trump’s death. Every major attack leaves its mark on architecture, police posture, and the way Americans gather. Institutions do not collapse under pressure—they become fortresses. But that very hardening makes civic life colder, less open, and more fearful.(4)(6)(10)

Accountability deters—but only when applied evenly.
McVeigh was executed. James Earl Ray, Sirhan Sirhan, and Czolgosz all faced trial or death. These punishments carried symbolic weight: violence against the state would not succeed. But when justice is politicized, the deterrent falters. The blanket pardons for Jan. 6 rioters sent the opposite signal: violence on behalf of one side may be excused. That lesson, if internalized, can make the next would-be attacker more confident, not less.(16)

In-group leaders must denounce their own.
The Weather Underground’s wave in the 1970s collapsed not only because of FBI infiltration, but because fellow progressives disavowed them. When radicals lose legitimacy among their own base, recruitment withers. The same principle applies today. When Kirk’s killer—a leftist motivated by hatred of MAGA politics—fired at a conservative speaker, progressive leaders had a chance to respond not just with condolences but with a clear, “This is not who we are.” Likewise, when MAGA figures denounce their own extremists, they rob would-be killers of a sense of validation. But silence—or worse, winks—keeps the permission structure alive.(5)

Waves taper when mobilization ebbs.
Violence feeds on mass gatherings. CSIS data shows that in 2019, only 2% of domestic terror incidents were linked to demonstrations; by 2021, more than half were.(12) That spike corresponded with nationwide protests over policing, COVID, and elections. When the streets are quieter, violence tends to subside. When protests swell, extremists see opportunities. The danger after Dallas and Kirk is that tit-for-tat attacks could turn every rally into a potential battlefield, ensuring the mobilization never fully ebbs.

But sometimes, waves don’t end at all—they mutate.
The assassination of Kirk by a leftist could become a rallying cry for retaliation. If even one MAGA-aligned actor were to storm a progressive rally, claiming vengeance for Kirk, the spiral would deepen. That is precisely how Italy’s “Years of Lead” sustained itself: each side claimed its bomb was “revenge” for the other’s. If Americans accept that logic, then Dallas ICE and Kirk’s murder may not be the crest of a wave but the opening of a cycle.

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Futures: Suppression, Normalization, or Escalation

1. Suppression Cycle (best-case)

America has lived this before. After the Weather Underground bombings, prosecutions and disavowals pushed violence to the margins. In this future, the Dallas shooter is tried, Kirk’s killer sentenced, Trump’s assailants locked away—all without partisan shielding. Both parties tell their followers: “Violence dishonors our cause.” Institutions harden, but civic life continues. Within a few years, the fever breaks.

2. Normalization Cycle (middle-case)

This is the darker road America already knows. School shootings, once shocking, are now routine. Imagine the same for political violence: another ICE ambush, another rally shooting, another would-be assassin at a golf course, each shocking for a news cycle but soon absorbed. Civic life survives, but scarred; leaders speak behind barriers, federal buildings become fortresses, the public grows numb.

3. Escalation Cycle (worst-case)

The nightmare path looks like Italy’s Years of Lead. A MAGA gunman storms a progressive rally, claiming vengeance for Kirk. A leftist retaliates against a conservative conference. Demonstrations turn into running street battles. Trust in elections collapses. Violence becomes not exception but expectation. In this world, Dallas ICE is remembered not as a tragedy but as a beginning.

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Conclusion

Dallas ICE is part of a story as old as the Reconstruction mobs and as recent as a sniper’s bullet grazing a former president on a Pennsylvania stage. From JFK to Kirk, from Oklahoma City to West Palm Beach, America’s political violence has always been about symbols: presidents, agencies, grievances, ideologies.

Whether this wave fades or escalates depends not just on perimeters and body armor but on something deeper: whether Americans will find the courage to hold their own accountable, to say “not in our name,” and to rebuild the civic trust that makes violence unnecessary.

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Footnotes

1. Reuters, Gunman wrote ‘ANTI-ICE’ on unused bullet in Dallas ICE attack, Sept 24, 2025【turn0news71†source】.
2. Wikipedia, Memphis Massacre of 1866【turn0search3†source】.
3. Wikipedia, Assassination of William McKinley【turn3search1†source】.
4. National Archives, Warren Commission Report on the Assassination of President Kennedy.
5. Cambridge University Press, American Political Violence and COINTELPRO【turn3news26†source】.
6. FBI & DOJ, Oklahoma City Bombing Case Files【turn0search3†source】.
7. New York Times, Pilot’s Suicide Attack on IRS Office, 2010【turn0search5†source】.
8. BBC, Tacoma ICE Attack, 2019【turn0search4†source】.
9. CNN, Dallas Police Ambush, 2016【turn0search6†source】.
10. DHS Review, Butler Rally Attempted Assassination of Donald Trump, 2024【turn1search3†source】.
11. AP, Charlie Kirk killed in Utah, Sept 2025【turn1search6†source】.
12. CSIS, Domestic Terrorism in the U.S.: Demonstration-linked incidents 2019–2021【turn2search6†source】.
13. ACLED, US Crisis Monitor 2020【turn2search1†source】.
14. START, Global Terrorism Database, 1970–2019【turn3search1†source】.
15. CSIS, U.S. Political Violence Trends, 2024【turn2search0†source】.
16. Politico, Mass Pardons of Jan 6 Defendants, 2025【turn1search0†source】.