That obnoxious screeching sound is coming from my fingernails going down the chalk board to get your attention.
You must understand the value I place on population data. Just about everything in local government current operations and forecasting is driven by population. Employment population is important, too, but residential population takes the front seat.
I also place great value on the data in your CAFRs, Official Statements for debt issuance and the multitude of expert studies and master plans that lead to decisions for future infrastructure and public facilities.
But here’s my problem. Rarely do I find the same historical numbers in all these documents. The tip off is when I see the same population numbers for multiple years, all rounded to even thousands or hundreds.
Then the difference is forecasted numbers is all over the board, the one I am scratching.
I realize this is a difficult issue and that there are dozens of federal, state and local agencies producing forecasts. And they vary so greatly that the red flag is glaring. I also know that there are pop estimates as of a calendar year, a fiscal year, and the federal numbers are often as of July except for the census as of April. Good grief!
Don’t bring me another problem, Lewis, unless you have a solution!
- First, appoint someone in the City to be the official keeper of both historical and future population estimates. Probably the City Planner or the Public Works Department.
- Reconcile all of your official documents with population and employment history to show the same numbers – and change them!
- Have your Pop Keeper to be the only official source for future forecasts. Who can be more accurate than the City staffers keeping track of building permit data, utility connections and occupancy rates? Who else can track and see the future coming than those dealing with annexations, zoning, platting, land use, densities and the remainder of the pipeline?
- Have your staff delve into forecasting methodologies from your COG and all federal and state agencies. But don’t have them spend much time there. Instead, send your official history and forecasts to them, along with your methodology and implore them to use your numbers.
- Have an annual review of pop forecasts with a presentation to your govering body AND have them adopt your forecasts.
- State in your RFPs, Engineering and Consulting agreements that only your official forecasts should be used.
- Change the organizational vocabulary such that you speak of revenues and expenses as well as workload measures on a per capita basis with the same zeal as a manufacturer talks of those items on a per unit or gallon basis. Dollars may go up. Big deal. That means little in light of the dollars per capita that might even be going down.
In summary, treat the population forecasts as sacred and have every internal and external player use your numbers for consistency and accuracy. Own the data! LFM