A collaboration between Lewis McLain & AI

A technical framework for staffing, facilities, and cost projection

Abstract

In local government forecasting, population is the dominant driver of service demand, staffing requirements, facility needs, and operating costs. While no municipal system can be forecast with perfect precision, population-based models—when properly structured—produce estimates that are sufficiently accurate for planning, budgeting, and capital decision-making. Crucially, population growth in cities is not a sudden or unknowable event.

Through annexation, zoning, platting, infrastructure construction, utility connections, and certificates of occupancy, population arrival is observable months or years in advance. This paper presents population not merely as a driver, but as a leading indicator, and demonstrates how cities can convert development approvals into staged population forecasts that support rational staffing, facility sizing, capital investment, and operating cost projections.

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1. Introduction: Why population sits at the center

Local governments exist to provide services to people. Police protection, fire response, streets, parks, water, sanitation, administration, and regulatory oversight are all mechanisms for supporting a resident population and the activity it generates. While policy choices and service standards influence how services are delivered, the volume of demand originates with population.

Practitioners often summarize this reality informally:

“Tell me the population, and I can tell you roughly how many police officers you need.
If I know the staff, I can estimate the size of the building.
If I know the size, I can estimate the construction cost.
If I know the size, I can estimate the electricity bill.”

This paper formalizes that intuition into a defensible forecasting framework and addresses a critical objection: population is often treated as uncertain or unknowable. In practice, population growth in cities is neither sudden nor mysterious—it is permitted into existence through public processes that unfold over years.

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2. Population as a base driver, not a single-variable shortcut

Population does not explain every budget line, but it explains most recurring demand when paired with a small number of modifiers.

At its core, many municipal services follow this structure:

Total Demand=α+β⋅Population

Where:

• α (fixed minimum) represents baseline capacity required regardless of size (minimum staffing, governance, 24/7 coverage).
• β (variable component) represents incremental demand generated by each additional resident.

This structure explains why:

• Small cities appear “overstaffed” per capita (fixed minimum dominates).
• Mid-sized and large cities stabilize into predictable staffing ratios.
• Growth pressures emerge when population increases faster than capacity adjustments.

Population therefore functions as the load variable of local government, analogous to demand in utility planning.

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3. Why population reliably predicts service demand

3.1 People generate transactions

Residents generate:

• Calls for service
• Utility usage
• Permits and inspections
• Court activity
• Recreation participation
• Library circulation
• Administrative transactions (HR, payroll, finance, IT)

While individual events vary, aggregate demand scales with population.

3.2 Capacity, not consumption, drives budgets

Municipal budgets fund capacity, not just usage:

• Staff must be available before calls occur
• Facilities must exist before staff are hired
• Vehicles and equipment must be in place before service delivery

Capacity decisions are inherently population-driven.

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4. Population growth is observable before it arrives

A defining feature of local government forecasting—often underappreciated—is that population growth is authorized through public approvals long before residents appear in census or utility data.

Population does not “arrive”; it progresses through a pipeline.

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5. The development pipeline as a population forecasting timeline

5.1 Annexation: strategic intent (years out)

Annexation establishes:

• Jurisdictional responsibility
• Long-term service obligations
• Future land-use authority

While annexation does not create immediate population, it signals where population will eventually be allowed.

Forecast role:

• Long-range horizon marker
• Infrastructure and service envelope planning
• Typical lead time: 3–10 years

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5.2 Zoning: maximum theoretical population

Zoning converts land into entitled density.

From zoning alone, cities can estimate:

• Maximum dwelling units
• Maximum population at buildout
• Long-run service ceilings

Zoning defines upper bounds, even if timing is uncertain.

Forecast role:

• Long-range capacity planning
• Useful for master plans and utility sizing
• Typical lead time: 3–7 years

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5.3 Preliminary plat: credible development intent

Preliminary plat approval signals:

• Developer capital commitment
• Defined lot counts
• Identified phasing

Population estimates become quantifiable, even if delivery timing varies.

Forecast role:

• Medium-high certainty population
• First stage for phased population modeling
• Typical lead time: 1–3 years

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5.4 Final plat: scheduled population

Final plat approval:

• Legally creates lots
• Locks in density and configuration
• Triggers infrastructure construction
• Impact Fees & other costs are committed

At this point, population arrival is no longer speculative.

Forecast role:

• High-confidence population forecasting
• Suitable for annual budget and staffing models
• Typical lead time: 6–24 months

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5.5 Infrastructure construction: timing constraints

Once streets, utilities, and drainage are built, population arrival becomes physically constrained by construction schedules.

Forecast role:

• Narrow timing window
• Supports staffing lead-time decisions
• Typical lead time: 6–18 months

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5.6 Water meter connections: imminent occupancy

Water meters are one of the most reliable near-term indicators:

• Each residential meter ≈ one household
• Installations closely precede vertical construction

Forecast role:

• Quarterly or monthly population forecasting
• Just-in-time operational scaling
• Typical lead time: 1–6 months

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5.7 Certificates of Occupancy: population realized

Certificates of occupancy convert permitted population into actual population.

At this point:

• Service demand begins immediately
• Utility consumption appears
• Forecasts can be validated

Forecast role:

• Confirmation and calibration
• Not prediction

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6. Population forecasting as a confidence ladder

Development Stage	Population Certainty	Timing Precision	Planning Use
Annexation	Low	Very low	Strategic
Zoning	Low–Medium	Low	Capacity envelopes
Preliminary Plat	Medium	Medium	Phased planning
Final Plat	High	Medium–High	Budget & staffing
Infrastructure Built	Very High	High	Operational prep
Water Meters	Extremely High	Very High	Near-term ops
COs	Certain	Exact	Validation

Population forecasting in cities is therefore graduated, not binary.

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7. From population to staffing

Once population arrival is staged, staffing can be forecast using service-specific ratios and fixed minimums.

7.1 Police example (illustrative ranges)

Sworn officers per 1,000 residents commonly stabilize within broad bands depending on service level and demand, also tied to known local ratios:

• Lower demand: ~1.2–1.8
• Moderate demand: ~1.8–2.4
• High demand: ~2.4–3.5+

Civilian support staff often scale as a fraction of sworn staffing.

The appropriate structure is:$$Officers = \alpha_{police} + \beta_{police} \cdot Population$$Officers=αpolice​+βpolice​⋅Population

Where α accounts for minimum 24/7 coverage and supervision.

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7.2 General government staffing

Administrative staffing scales with:

• Population
• Number of employees
• Asset inventory
• Transaction volume

A fixed core plus incremental per-capita growth captures this reality more accurately than pure ratios.

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8. From staffing to facilities

Facilities are a function of:

• Headcount
• Service configuration
• Security and public access needs

A practical planning method:$$Facility\ Size = FTE \cdot Gross\ SF\ per\ FTE$$Facility Size=FTE⋅Gross SF per FTE

Typical blended civic office planning ranges usually fall within:

• ~175–300 gross SF per employee

Specialized spaces (dispatch, evidence, fleet, courts) are layered on separately.

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9. From facilities to capital and operating costs

9.1 Capital costs

Capital expansion costs are typically modeled as:$$Capex = Added\ SF \cdot Cost\ per\ SF \cdot (1 + Soft\ Costs)$$Capex=Added SF⋅Cost per SF⋅(1+Soft Costs)

Where soft costs include design, permitting, contingencies, and escalation.

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9.2 Operating costs

Facility operating costs scale predictably with size:

• Electricity: kWh per SF per year
• Maintenance: % of replacement value or $/SF
• Custodial: $/SF
• Lifecycle renewals

Electricity alone can be reasonably estimated as:$$Annual\ Cost = SF \cdot kWh/SF \cdot \$/kWh$$Annual Cost=SF⋅kWh/SF⋅$/kWh

This is rarely exact—but it is directionally reliable.

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10. Key modifiers that refine population models

Population alone is powerful but incomplete. High-quality forecasts adjust for:

• Density and land use
• Daytime population and employment
• Demographics
• Service standards
• Productivity and technology
• Geographic scale (lane miles, acres)

These modifiers refine, but do not replace, population as the base driver.

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11. Why growth surprises cities anyway

When cities claim growth was “unexpected,” the issue is rarely lack of information. More often:

• Development signals were not integrated into finance models
• Staffing and capital planning lagged approvals
• Fixed minimums were ignored
• Threshold effects (new stations, expansions) were deferred too long

Growth that appears sudden is usually forecastable growth that was not operationalized.

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12. Conclusion

Population is the primary driver of local government demand, but more importantly, it is a predictable driver. Through annexation, zoning, platting, infrastructure construction, utility connections, and certificates of occupancy, cities possess a multi-year advance view of population arrival.

This makes it possible to:

• Phase staffing rationally
• Time facilities before overload
• Align capital investment with demand
• Improve credibility with councils, auditors, and rating agencies

In local government, population growth is not a surprise. It is a permitted, engineered, and scheduled outcome of public decisions. A forecasting system that treats population as both a driver and a leading indicator is not speculative—it is simply paying attention to the city’s own approvals.

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Appendix A

Defensibility of Population-Driven Forecasting Models

A response framework for auditors, rating agencies, and governing bodies

Purpose of this appendix

This appendix addresses a common concern raised during budget reviews, audits, bond disclosures, and council deliberations:

“Population-based forecasts seem too simplistic or speculative.”

The purpose here is not to argue that population is the only factor affecting local government costs, but to demonstrate that population-driven forecasting—when anchored to development approvals and adjusted for service standards—is methodologically sound, observable, and conservative.

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A.1 Population forecasting is not speculative in local government

A frequent misconception is that population forecasts rely on demographic projections or external estimates. In practice, this model relies primarily on the city’s own legally binding approvals.

Population growth enters the forecast only after it has passed through:

• Annexation agreements
• Zoning entitlements
• Preliminary and final plats
• Infrastructure construction
• Utility connections
• Certificates of occupancy

These are public, documented actions, not assumptions.

Key distinction for reviewers:
This model does not ask “How fast might the city grow?”
It asks “What growth has the city already approved, and when will it become occupied?”

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A.2 Population is treated as a leading indicator, not a lagging one

Traditional population measures (census counts, ACS estimates) are lagging indicators. This model explicitly avoids relying on those for near-term forecasting.

Instead, it uses development milestones as leading indicators, each with increasing certainty and narrower timing windows.

For audit and disclosure purposes:

• Early-stage entitlements affect only long-range capacity planning
• Staffing and capital decisions are triggered only at later, high-certainty stages
• Near-term operating impacts are tied to utility connections and COs

This layered approach prevents premature spending while avoiding reactive under-staffing.

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A.3 Fixed minimums prevent over-projection in small or slow-growth cities

A common audit concern is that per-capita models overstate staffing needs.

This model explicitly separates:

• Fixed baseline capacity (α)
• Incremental population-driven capacity (β)

This structure:

• Prevents unrealistic staffing increases in early growth stages
• Accurately reflects real-world minimum staffing requirements
• Explains why per-capita ratios vary by city size

Auditors should note that this approach is more conservative than straight-line per-capita extrapolation.

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A.4 Service standards are explicit policy inputs, not hidden assumptions

Population does not automatically dictate staffing levels. Staffing reflects policy decisions.

This model requires the city to explicitly state:

• Response time targets
• Service frequency goals
• Coverage expectations
• Hours of operation

As a result:

• Changes in staffing can be clearly attributed to either population growth or policy change
• Council decisions are transparently reflected in forecasts
• The model separates “growth pressure” from “service enhancements or reductions”

This clarity improves accountability rather than obscuring it.

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A.5 Facilities and capital projections follow staffing, not speculation

Another concern raised by reviewers is that population forecasts may be used to justify premature capital expansion.

This model deliberately enforces a sequencing discipline:

1. Population approvals observed
2. Staffing thresholds reached
3. Facility capacity constraints identified
4. Capital expansion triggered

Facilities are not expanded because population might grow, but because staffing—already justified by approved growth—can no longer be accommodated.

This mirrors best practices in asset management and avoids front-loading debt.

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A.6 Operating cost estimates use industry-standard unit costs

Electricity, maintenance, custodial, and lifecycle costs are estimated using:

• Per-square-foot benchmarks
• Historical city utility data where available
• Conservative unit assumptions

These are not novel or experimental methods. They are the same unit-cost techniques commonly used in:

• CIP planning
• Facility condition assessments
• Energy benchmarking
• Budget impact statements

Auditors should view these estimates as planning magnitudes, not precise bills—and that distinction is explicitly stated in the model documentation.

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A.7 The model is testable and falsifiable

A major strength of this approach is that it can be validated against actual outcomes.

As certificates of occupancy are issued:

• Actual population arrival can be compared to forecasts
• Staffing changes can be reconciled
• Utility consumption can be measured

This allows:

• Annual recalibration
• Error tracking
• Continuous improvement

Models that can be tested and corrected are inherently more defensible than opaque judgment-based forecasts.

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A.8 Why this approach aligns with rating-agency expectations

Bond rating agencies consistently emphasize:

• Predictability
• Governance discipline
• Forward planning
• Avoidance of reactive financial decisions

This framework demonstrates:

• Awareness of growth pressures well in advance
• Phased responses rather than abrupt spending
• Clear linkage between approvals, staffing, and capital
• Conservative treatment of uncertainty

As such, population-driven forecasting anchored to development approvals should be viewed as a credit positive, not a risk.

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A.9 Summary for reviewers

For audit, disclosure, and governance purposes, the following conclusions are reasonable:

1. Population growth in cities is observable years in advance through public approvals.
2. Using approved development as a population driver is evidence-based, not speculative.
3. Fixed minimums and service-level inputs prevent mechanical over-projection.
4. Staffing precedes facilities; facilities precede capital.
5. Operating costs scale predictably with assets and space.
6. The model is transparent, testable, and adjustable.

Therefore:
A population-driven forecasting model of this type represents a prudent, defensible, and professionally reasonable approach to long-range municipal planning.

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Appendix B

Consequences of Failing to Anticipate Population Growth

A diagnostic review of reactive municipal planning

Purpose of this appendix

This appendix describes common failure patterns observed in cities that do not systematically link development approvals to population, staffing, and facility planning. These outcomes are not the result of negligence or bad intent; they typically arise from fragmented information, short planning horizons, or the absence of an integrated forecasting framework.

The patterns described below are widely recognized in municipal practice and are offered to illustrate the practical risks of reactive planning.

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B.1 “Surprise growth” that was not actually a surprise

A frequent narrative in reactive cities is that growth “arrived suddenly.” In most cases, the growth was visible years earlier through zoning approvals, plats, or utility extensions but was not translated into staffing or capital plans.

Common indicators:

• Approved subdivisions not reflected in operating forecasts
• Development tracked only by planning staff, not finance or operations
• Population discussed only after occupancy

Consequences:

• Budget shocks
• Emergency staffing requests
• Loss of credibility with governing bodies

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B.2 Knee-jerk staffing reactions

When growth impacts become unavoidable, reactive cities often respond through hurried staffing actions.

Typical symptoms:

• Mid-year supplemental staffing requests
• Heavy reliance on overtime
• Accelerated hiring without workforce planning
• Training pipelines overwhelmed

Consequences:

• Elevated labor costs
• Increased burnout and turnover
• Declining service quality during growth periods
• Inefficient long-term staffing structures

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B.3 Under-sizing followed by over-correction

Without forward planning, cities often alternate between two extremes:

1. Under-sizing due to conservative or delayed response
2. Over-sizing in reaction to service breakdowns

Examples:

• Facilities built too small “to be safe”
• Rapid expansions shortly after completion
• Swing from staffing shortages to excess capacity

Consequences:

• Higher lifecycle costs
• Poor space utilization
• Perception of waste or mismanagement

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B.4 Obsolete facilities at the moment of completion

Facilities planned without reference to future population often open already constrained.

Common causes:

• Planning based on current headcount only
• Ignoring entitled but unoccupied development
• Failure to include expansion capability

Consequences:

• Expensive retrofits
• Disrupted operations during expansion
• Shortened facility useful life

This is one of the most costly errors because capital investments are long-lived and difficult to correct.

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B.5 Deferred capital followed by crisis-driven spending

Reactive cities often delay capital investment until systems fail visibly.

Typical patterns:

• Fire stations added only after response times degrade
• Police facilities expanded only after overcrowding
• Utilities upgraded only after service complaints

Consequences:

• Emergency procurement
• Higher construction costs
• Increased debt stress
• Lost opportunity for phased financing

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B.6 Misalignment between departments

When population intelligence is not shared across departments:

• Planning knows what is coming
• Finance budgets based on current year
• Operations discover impacts last

Consequences:

• Conflicting narratives to council
• Fragmented decision-making
• Reduced trust between departments

Population-driven forecasting provides a common factual baseline.

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B.7 Overreliance on lagging indicators

Reactive cities often rely heavily on:

• Census updates
• Utility consumption after occupancy
• Service call increases

These indicators confirm growth after it has already strained capacity.

Consequences:

• Persistent lag between demand and response
• Structural understaffing
• Continual “catch-up” budgeting

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B.8 Political whiplash and credibility erosion

Unanticipated growth pressures often force councils into repeated difficult votes:

• Emergency funding requests
• Mid-year budget amendments
• Rapid debt authorizations

Over time, this leads to:

• Voter skepticism
• Council fatigue
• Reduced tolerance for legitimate future investments

Planning failures become governance failures.

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B.9 Inefficient use of taxpayer dollars

Ironically, reactive planning often costs more, not less.

Cost drivers include:

• Overtime premiums
• Compressed construction schedules
• Retrofit and rework costs
• Higher borrowing costs due to rushed timing

Proactive planning spreads costs over time and reduces risk premiums.

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B.10 Organizational stress and morale impacts

Staff experience growth pressures first.

Observed impacts:

• Chronic overtime
• Inadequate workspace
• Equipment shortages
• Frustration with leadership responsiveness

Over time, this contributes to:

• Higher turnover
• Loss of institutional knowledge
• Reduced service consistency

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B.11 Why these failures persist

These patterns are not caused by incompetence. They persist because:

• Growth information is siloed
• Forecasting is viewed as speculative
• Political incentives favor short-term restraint
• Capital planning horizons are too short

Absent a formal framework, cities default to reaction.

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B.12 Summary for governing bodies

Cities that do not integrate development approvals into population-driven forecasting commonly experience:

1. Perceived “surprise” growth
2. Emergency staffing responses
3. Repeated under- and over-sizing
4. Facilities that age prematurely
5. Higher long-term costs
6. Organizational strain
7. Reduced public confidence

None of these outcomes are inevitable. They are symptoms of not using information the city already has.

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B.13 Closing observation

The contrast between proactive and reactive cities is not one of optimism versus pessimism. It is a difference between:

• Anticipation versus reaction
• Sequencing versus scrambling
• Planning versus explaining after the fact

Population-driven forecasting does not eliminate uncertainty. It replaces surprise with preparation.

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Appendix C

Population Readiness & Forecasting Discipline Checklist

A self-assessment for proactive versus reactive cities

Purpose:
This checklist allows a city to evaluate whether it is systematically anticipating population growth—or discovering it after impacts occur. It is designed for use by city management teams, finance directors, auditors, and governing bodies.

How to use:
For each item, mark:

• ✅ Yes / In place
• ⚠️ Partially / Informal
• ❌ No / Not done

Patterns matter more than individual answers.

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Section 1 — Visibility of Future Population

C-1 Do we maintain a consolidated list of annexed, zoned, and entitled land with estimated buildout population?

C-2 Are preliminary and final plats tracked in a format usable by finance and operations (not just planning)?

C-3 Do we estimate population by development phase, not just at full buildout?

C-4 Is there a documented method for converting lots or units into population (household size assumptions reviewed periodically)?

C-5 Do we distinguish between long-range potential growth and near-term probable growth?

Red flag:
Population is discussed primarily in narrative terms (“fast growth,” “slowing growth”) rather than quantified and staged.

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Section 2 — Timing and Lead Indicators

C-6 Do we identify which development milestone triggers planning action (e.g., preliminary plat vs final plat)?

C-7 Are infrastructure completion schedules incorporated into population timing assumptions?

C-8 Are water meter installations or equivalent utility connections tracked and forecasted?

C-9 Do we use certificates of occupancy to validate and recalibrate population forecasts annually?

C-10 Is population forecasting treated as a rolling forecast, not a once-per-year estimate?

Red flag:
Population is updated only when census or ACS data is released.

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Section 3 — Staffing Linkage

C-11 Does each major department have an identified population or workload driver?

C-12 Are fixed minimum staffing levels explicitly separated from growth-driven staffing?

C-13 Are staffing increases tied to forecasted population arrival, not service breakdowns?

C-14 Do hiring plans account for lead times (recruitment, academies, training)?

C-15 Can we explain recent staffing increases as either:

• population growth, or
• explicit policy/service-level changes?

Red flag:
Staffing requests frequently cite “we are behind” without reference to forecasted growth.

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Section 4 — Facilities and Capital Planning

C-16 Are facility size requirements derived from staffing projections, not current headcount?

C-17 Do capital plans include expansion thresholds (e.g., headcount or service load triggers)?

C-18 Are new facilities designed with future expansion capability?

C-19 Are entitled-but-unoccupied developments considered when evaluating future facility adequacy?

C-20 Do we avoid building facilities that are at or near capacity on opening day?

Red flag:
Facilities require major expansion within a few years of completion.

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Section 5 — Operating Cost Awareness

C-21 Are operating costs (utilities, maintenance, custodial) modeled as a function of facility size and assets?

C-22 Are utility cost impacts of expansion estimated before facilities are approved?

C-23 Do we understand how population growth affects indirect departments (HR, IT, finance)?

C-24 Are lifecycle replacement costs considered when adding capacity?

Red flag:
Operating cost increases appear as “unavoidable surprises” after facilities open.

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Section 6 — Cross-Department Integration

C-25 Do planning, finance, and operations use the same population assumptions?

C-26 Is growth discussed in joint meetings, not only within planning?

C-27 Does finance receive regular updates on development pipeline status?

C-28 Are growth assumptions documented and shared, not implicit or informal?

Red flag:
Different departments give different growth narratives to council.

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Section 7 — Governance and Transparency

C-29 Can we clearly explain to council why staffing or capital is needed before service failure occurs?

C-30 Are population-driven assumptions documented in budget books or CIP narratives?

C-31 Do we distinguish between:

• growth-driven needs, and
• discretionary service enhancements?

C-32 Can auditors or rating agencies trace growth-related decisions back to documented approvals?

Red flag:
Growth explanations rely on urgency rather than evidence.

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Section 8 — Validation and Learning

C-33 Do we compare forecasted population arrival to actual COs annually?

C-34 Are forecasting errors analyzed and corrected rather than ignored?

C-35 Do we adjust household size, absorption rates, or timing assumptions over time?

Red flag:
Forecasts remain unchanged year after year despite clear deviations.

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Scoring Interpretation (Optional)

• Mostly ✅ → Proactive, anticipatory city
• Mix of ✅ and ⚠️ → Partially planned, risk of reactive behavior
• Many ❌ → Reactive city; growth will feel like a surprise

A city does not need perfect scores. The presence of structure, documentation, and sequencing is what matters.

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Closing Note for Leadership

If a city can answer most of these questions affirmatively, it is not guessing about growth—it is managing it. If many answers are negative, the city is likely reacting to outcomes it had the power to anticipate.

Population growth does not cause planning problems.
Ignoring known growth signals does.

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Appendix D

Population-Driven Planning Maturity Model

A framework for assessing and improving municipal forecasting discipline

Purpose of this appendix

This maturity model describes how cities evolve in their ability to anticipate population growth and translate it into staffing, facility, and financial planning. It recognizes that most cities are not “good” or “bad” planners; they are simply at different stages of organizational maturity.

Each level builds logically on the prior one. Advancement does not require perfection—only structure, integration, and discipline.

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Level 1 — Reactive City

“We didn’t see this coming.”

Characteristics

• Population discussed only after impacts are felt
• Reliance on census or anecdotal indicators
• Growth described qualitatively (“exploding,” “slowing”)
• Staffing added only after service failure
• Capital projects triggered by visible overcrowding
• Frequent mid-year budget amendments

Typical behaviors

• Emergency staffing requests
• Heavy overtime usage
• Facilities opened already constrained
• Surprise operating cost increases

Organizational mindset

Growth is treated as external and unpredictable.

Risks

• Highest long-term cost
• Lowest credibility with councils and rating agencies
• Chronic organizational stress

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Level 2 — Aware but Unintegrated City

“Planning knows growth is coming, but others don’t act on it.”

Characteristics

• Development pipeline tracked by planning
• Finance and operations not fully engaged
• Growth acknowledged but not quantified in budgets
• Capital planning still reactive
• Limited documentation of assumptions

Typical behaviors

• Late staffing responses despite known development
• Facilities planned using current headcount
• Disconnect between planning reports and budget narratives

Organizational mindset

Growth is known, but not operationalized.

Risks

• Continued surprises
• Internal frustration
• Mixed messages to council

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Level 3 — Structured Forecasting City

“We model growth, but execution lags.”

Characteristics

• Population forecasts tied to development approvals
• Preliminary staffing models exist
• Fixed minimums recognized
• Capital needs identified in advance
• Forecasts updated annually

Typical behaviors

• Better budget explanations
• Improved CIP alignment
• Still some late responses due to execution gaps

Organizational mindset

Growth is forecastable, but timing discipline is still developing.

Strengths

• Credible analysis
• Reduced emergencies
• Clearer governance conversations

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Level 4 — Integrated Planning City

“Approvals, staffing, and capital move together.”

Characteristics

• Development pipeline drives population timing
• Staffing plans phased to population arrival
• Facility sizing based on projected headcount
• Operating costs modeled from assets
• Cross-department coordination is routine

Typical behaviors

• Hiring planned ahead of demand
• Facilities open with expansion capacity
• Capital timed to avoid crisis spending
• Clear audit trail from approvals to costs

Organizational mindset

Growth is managed, not reacted to.

Benefits

• Stable service delivery during growth
• Higher workforce morale
• Strong credibility with governing bodies

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Level 5 — Adaptive, Data-Driven City

“We learn, recalibrate, and optimize continuously.”

Characteristics

• Rolling population forecasts
• Development milestones tracked in near-real time
• Annual validation against COs and utility data
• Forecast errors analyzed and corrected
• Scenario modeling for alternative growth paths

Typical behaviors

• Minimal surprises
• High confidence in long-range plans
• Early identification of inflection points
• Proactive communication with councils and investors

Organizational mindset

Growth is a controllable system, not a threat.

Benefits

• Lowest lifecycle cost
• Highest service reliability
• Institutional resilience

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Summary Table

Level	Description	Core Risk
1	Reactive	Crisis-driven decisions
2	Aware, unintegrated	Late responses
3	Structured	Execution lag
4	Integrated	Few surprises
5	Adaptive	Minimal risk

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Key Insight

Most cities are not failing—they are stuck between Levels 2 and 3. The largest gains come not from sophisticated analytics, but from integration and timing discipline.

Progression does not require:

• Perfect forecasts
• Advanced software
• Large consulting engagements

It requires:

• Using approvals the city already grants
• Sharing population assumptions across departments
• Sequencing decisions intentionally

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Closing Observation

Cities do not choose whether they grow. They choose whether growth feels like a surprise or a scheduled event.

This maturity model makes that choice visible.