Density, Interaction, Aging, and the Fracturing of Local Control

A collaboration between Lewis McLain, Paul Grimes & AI
(Idea prompted by Paul Grimes, City Manager of McKinney)

Urban Theory Meets the New Texas Growth Regime

I. Why cities experience service growth faster than population

Cities rarely experience growth as a smooth, proportional process. Long before population numbers appear alarming, residents begin to sense strain: longer response times, crowded facilities, rising calls for service, and increasing friction in public space. The discrepancy between modest population growth and outsized service demand has been observed across cities and eras, and it has produced a deep body of urban theory seeking to explain why cities behave this way.

Across disciplines, a shared conclusion emerges: density increases interaction, and interaction accelerates outcomes. These outcomes include innovation, productivity, and cultural vitality—but also conflict, disorder, and service demand. What varies among theorists is not the mechanism itself, but how cities can shape, moderate, or absorb its consequences.

II. Geoffrey West and the mathematics of acceleration

Geoffrey West’s contribution is foundational because it removes morality, politics, and culture from the initial explanation. Cities, in his framework, are not collections of individuals; they are networks. As networks grow denser, the number of possible interactions grows faster than the number of nodes. This produces superlinear scaling in many urban outputs. When population doubles, certain outcomes more than double.

Crucially, West shows that the same mathematical logic governs both positive and negative outcomes. Innovation and GDP rise superlinearly; so do some forms of crime, disease transmission, and social friction. The implication is unsettling but clarifying: cities are social accelerators by design. Service demand tied to interaction will often grow faster than population, not because governance has failed, but because the underlying structure makes it inevitable.

West assumes, however, that cities respond to acceleration by reinventing themselves—upgrading systems, redesigning institutions, and continuously adapting. That assumption becomes important later.

III. Jane Jacobs and the conditions that turn density into order

Jane Jacobs does not dispute that density increases interaction. Her work asks a different question: what kind of interaction?

Jacobs argues that dense places can be remarkably safe and resilient when they are mixed-use, human-scaled, and continuously occupied. Her concept of “eyes on the street” is not sentimental; it is a theory of informal governance. In healthy neighborhoods, constant presence creates passive supervision. People notice deviations. Streets regulate themselves long before police are required.

But Jacobs is equally clear about the failure mode. Density without diversity—large single-use developments, commuter-only corridors, or isolated residential blocks—removes the stabilizing feedback loops. Interaction still increases, but it becomes episodic, anonymous, and harder to regulate informally. In those conditions, service demand rises sharply.

Jacobs therefore reframes West’s mathematics: density raises interaction; urban form determines whether interaction stabilizes or combusts.

IV. Sampson and the social capacity to absorb friction

Robert Sampson’s work further refines the picture by introducing collective efficacy—the capacity of a community to maintain order through shared norms and willingness to intervene. His research demonstrates that dense or disadvantaged neighborhoods do not inevitably experience high crime. Where social cohesion is strong and institutions are trusted, communities suppress disorder even under pressure.

This matters because it shows that service demand is not driven by density alone. Two areas with similar physical form can generate radically different workloads depending on stability, tenure, turnover, and informal social control. For forecasting, Sampson’s insight is critical: interaction becomes costly when social capacity erodes.

V. Glaeser, incentives, and why density keeps happening

Edward Glaeser explains why density persists despite its costs. Proximity is economically powerful. Dense cities match labor and opportunity more efficiently, transmit knowledge faster, and generate wealth. These benefits accrue quickly and privately, while the costs—service strain, infrastructure wear, social friction—arrive later and publicly.

This asymmetry explains why development pressure is relentless and why political systems often favor growth even when local governments struggle to keep up. Density is not an accident; it is the predictable outcome of incentives embedded in land markets and regional economies.

VI. Scott and the danger of simplified governance

James C. Scott provides the warning. Governments, he argues, tend to simplify complex systems into legible categories because they are easier to manage. But cities function through local variation, informal practices, and spatial nuance. When governance relies too heavily on abstract averages—per-capita ratios, citywide forecasts—it often misses where strain actually emerges.

Service demand concentrates in places, not evenly among people. This is why cities often feel stressed long before the spreadsheets confirm it.

VII. The missing assumption: cities control the form of their own growth

Despite their differences, these thinkers share a quiet assumption: the city experiencing density also has authority over that density. West assumes institutional reinvention is possible. Jacobs assumes local control over land use and street design. Sampson assumes neighborhoods evolve within a municipal framework. Glaeser assumes prosperity helps fund adaptation. Scott assumes the state has power, even if it misuses it.

That assumption no longer reliably holds in Texas.

VIII. The Texas legislative shift: density without authority

Over the past decade, Texas has steadily constrained municipal authority over annexation and extraterritorial jurisdiction while expanding developer freedom. Growth has not slowed; it has been redirected. Increasingly, large, dense developments are built outside city limits, beyond zoning authority, and often beyond meaningful density control.

Yet interaction does not stop at the city line. Residents of these developments commute through cities, use city roads, access city amenities, and generate service demand that cities are often contractually or practically compelled to address. The result is a new condition: density without authority.

This interrupts the thinkers’ chain of logic. Interaction still accelerates. Service demand still rises. But the city’s ability to shape the form, timing, and integration of growth is weakened. Institutional adaptation becomes reactive rather than formative.

IX. Houston and the path North Texas is now taking

This pattern is not new statewide. The Houston region has long operated under fragmented governance: cities, counties, MUDs, and special districts collectively producing urban form without a single coordinating authority. Houston’s growth model has always relied on externalized infrastructure finance and delayed incorporation.

North Texas historically followed a different path. Cities like McKinney and Plano grew through annexation, internalized infrastructure, and municipal sequencing. Density, services, and revenue were aligned.

Texas policy has changed that trajectory. North Texas is being pushed toward a Houston-style future—not by local choice, but by legal structure.

X. Aging: the force that converts today’s growth into tomorrow’s strain

Growth does not remain new. Aging is the force that locks in consequences.

A city dominated by 0–5 year-old apartments is operationally different from the same city thirty years later. As housing stock ages, rents soften, tenant turnover increases, maintenance is deferred, and informal adaptations emerge. The same density produces more service demand over time. Homeowners turning to renters are two different types of censuses in the same city.

Infrastructure ages alongside housing. Systems built in growth waves fail in cohorts. Maintenance demands converge. Replacement cycles collide with operating budgets. Even if population stabilizes, service pressure intensifies.

Aging transforms density from an abstract risk into a concrete workload.

XI. Schools as the clearest signal of the lifecycle mismatch

School closures—such as those experienced by McKinney ISD and many other Texas districts—are not isolated education issues. They are urban lifecycle signals.

When cities are young:

  • Family formation is high
  • Enrollment grows
  • Schools are built quickly

As housing ages:

  • Household size shrinks
  • Families age in place
  • Single-family homes convert to rentals
  • Multifamily units turn over rapidly
  • Student yield per unit declines

At the same time, infrastructure and neighborhoods age, and service demand rises elsewhere. Police calls, code enforcement, and social services grow even as schools empty. This is the paradox many Texas cities now face: closing schools in growing cities.

School closures therefore mark the transition from growth-driven demand to aging-driven demand. They reveal that population alone no longer explains service needs.

XII. The compounding effect of ETJ growth and aging

ETJ-driven development postpones this reckoning but does not prevent it. New developments outside city limits age just as surely as those inside. When they do, cities face a delayed shock: aging neighborhoods and infrastructure they did not shape, often without full fiscal integration. New growth in the ETJ require new local schools. Capacity of old schools cannot be absorbed by new growth as buses and distances act as a constraint.

Houston has lived with this reality for decades. North Texas is entering it now.

XIII. Conclusion: a new urban regime

The urban theorists remain correct about density, interaction, and acceleration. What Texas has altered is the governing environment in which those forces play out. Annexation limits and ETJ erosion do not stop growth. They delay accountability. Aging ensures that delay is temporary.

For cities like McKinney, the future is not simply more growth, nor even more density. It is a shift toward a fragmented, aging, interaction-heavy urban form—one that increasingly resembles Houston’s long-standing condition rather than North Texas’s historical model.

Understanding this arc—density → interaction → aging → service strain, under diminished local control—is essential before any discussion of elasticity, finance, or sustainability can be honest. Great thinkers are rethinking!

Appendix A

Key Thinkers, Publications, and Intellectual Contributions Referenced in This Essay

This appendix summarizes the principal authors and works referenced in the essay Density, Interaction, Aging, and the Fracturing of Local Control. Each has influenced modern thinking about cities, growth, density, governance, and service demand. The summaries below are intentionally descriptive rather than argumentative.

Geoffrey West

Primary Works

  • Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies (2017)
  • Bettencourt, L. M. A., et al., “Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)

Core Contribution
West applies principles from physics and network theory to biological and social systems. His work demonstrates that many urban outputs—economic production, innovation, and certain social pathologies—scale superlinearly with population because cities function as dense interaction networks. His framework explains why some service demands grow faster than population and why cities must continually adapt to accelerating pressures.

Relevance to the Essay
Provides the mathematical foundation for understanding why interaction-driven services (public safety, emergency response, enforcement) often outpace population growth.

Jane Jacobs

Primary Works

  • The Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961)

Core Contribution
Jacobs challenges top-down planning and argues that healthy cities depend on mixed uses, short blocks, human-scale design, and continuous street activity. Her concept of “eyes on the street” explains how informal social control stabilizes dense environments.

Relevance to the Essay
Explains why density does not automatically produce disorder and how urban form determines whether interaction becomes self-regulating or service-intensive.

Robert J. Sampson

Primary Works

  • Great American City: Chicago and the Enduring Neighborhood Effect (2012)
  • Sampson, Raudenbush, and Earls, “Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy,” Science (1997)

Core Contribution
Sampson introduces the concept of collective efficacy—the ability of communities to maintain order through shared norms and informal intervention. His work demonstrates that social cohesion and neighborhood stability can suppress disorder independent of density.

Relevance to the Essay
Provides the social mechanism explaining why similar densities can produce very different service demands over time.

Edward Glaeser

Primary Works

  • Triumph of the City (2011)

Core Contribution
Glaeser emphasizes the economic benefits of density, arguing that cities exist because proximity increases productivity, innovation, and opportunity. He frames density as an economic choice driven by incentives rather than a planning failure.

Relevance to the Essay
Explains why growth pressure persists despite service strain and why development tends to outpace municipal capacity to respond.

James C. Scott

Primary Works

  • Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed (1998)

Core Contribution
Scott critiques centralized planning and “legibility”—the tendency of governments to simplify complex systems into administratively convenient categories. He shows how ignoring local knowledge and spatial nuance often produces unintended consequences.

Relevance to the Essay
Warns against overreliance on citywide averages and per-capita metrics in forecasting service demand.

Crime Concentration and Place-Based Policing

Key Authors

  • David Weisburd
  • Anthony Braga

Representative Works

  • Weisburd, “The Law of Crime Concentration at Places,” Criminology
  • Braga et al., studies on hot-spots policing

Core Contribution
Demonstrates that crime and disorder are highly concentrated in small geographic areas rather than evenly distributed across populations.

Relevance to the Essay
Supports the argument that service demand accelerates spatially and perceptually before it appears in aggregate population statistics.

Urban Economics and Land-Use Structure

Additional Influential Works

  • Alain Bertaud, Order Without Design (2018)
  • Donald Shoup, The High Cost of Free Parking (2005)

Core Contributions
Bertaud emphasizes cities as labor markets shaped by land constraints rather than plans. Shoup demonstrates how parking policy distorts density, travel behavior, and land use.

Relevance to the Essay
Provide supporting context for how policy choices shape interaction patterns and service demand indirectly.

Houston-Region Governance and Fragmentation

Institutions and Research

  • Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research
  • Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center

Core Contribution
Document the long-standing use of special districts, MUDs, and fragmented governance structures in the Houston region and their implications for infrastructure, service delivery, and long-term municipal responsibility.

Relevance to the Essay
Establish Houston as a precedent for the fragmented growth model North Texas is increasingly approaching.

Texas Local Government and Annexation Policy

Statutory Context

  • Texas Local Government Code, Chapter 42 (Extraterritorial Jurisdiction)
  • Legislative reforms including SB 6 (2017), HB 347 (2019), and SB 2038 (2023)

Core Contribution
These changes constrain municipal annexation and weaken ETJ authority, altering the alignment between growth, governance, and service responsibility.

Relevance to the Essay
Provide the legal backdrop for the “density without authority” condition described.

School District Demographic and Facility Trends

Contextual Sources

  • Texas Education Agency (TEA) enrollment data
  • District-level facility planning and consolidation reports (e.g., MISD and peer districts)

Core Contribution
School closures and consolidations reflect long-term demographic shifts, housing lifecycle effects, and declining student yield in aging neighborhoods.

Relevance to the Essay
Serve as a visible indicator of urban aging and lifecycle mismatch in growing cities.

Closing Note on Use

This appendix is intended to clarify intellectual provenance, not to prescribe policy positions. The essay draws from multiple disciplines—physics, sociology, economics, planning, and public administration—to explain why modern cities experience accelerating service demand under changing governance conditions.

LFM Note: My personal circle of great thinkers leaves me always yearning for more time to visit with them. Lunch with Paul Grimes always takes a deeper probe than I am expecting. A visit with David Leininger always expands my knowledge and surprises me with more than just nuances to improve my vocabulary and vision. Dan Johnson considers me one of his mentors, but he thinks so far above and ahead as he describes his way of thinking with facts mixed with a tinge of Greek mythology. Even a short visit with Dan clarifies who the real mentor is. Our conversations start off with energy and end up with us feeding off each other like two little kids making a discovery. Don Paschal has been a friend and colleague for the longest and is full of experience, wisdom, but with a refreshing biblical integration. Becky Brooks is one of my closest colleagues and like a sister in sync with common vision and analyses. There are more. But I must stop here. LFM

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