Illustrative framework by David Leininger 50 years ago; Written by Lewis McLain & AI
About 50 years ago, I was sitting in a budget meeting at Garland. Fiscal Services Administrator David Leininger had just joined the city. The meeting included most of the other Administrators, including the Administrator for Public Works. The issue at hand was a budget request for a few new street sweepers. Then came my lifelong educational moment. David pulled out his new TI hand calculator and started asking questions. How many curb miles do we have? How fast does a street sweeper travel when in action? What is the frequency for sweeping streets annually? How many street sweepers do you have now? In only a minute or two, David concluded the city had more than enough street sweepers. Then he went deeper with his questions to reveal that the city didn’t have a sweeper machine problem. There was a scheduling problem where the existing program pulled several street workers off their regular jobs to spend a few days of the month focused on street sweeping. The budget request was withdrawn. I was changed forever. So, in that spirit, honed sharper for me over the decades, let’s apply it to another topic. If you think I’ve missed the mark, give me your variables or a different methodology. LFM
1. Background
The No Kings protests in October 2025 were nationwide demonstrations against perceived authoritarianism under Donald Trump’s second term. Major rallies occurred in multiple U.S. cities. One widely circulated image showed an enormous crowd gathered on Boston Common, with claims that the turnout exceeded one million people.
2. Conflicting Claims
Social media and some AI chatbots asserted that the photo was old—specifically from a 2017 rally—while outlets such as MSNBC, AP, and BBC Verify confirmed it was genuine footage from the October 18, 2025 event.
Fact-checkers determined that the mislabeling originated from Grok, an AI service that erroneously linked the image to 2017. Photographic metadata, timestamp analysis, and weather conditions verified the 2025 origin.
Conclusion:
✅ The image is authentic to the No Kings protest on October 18, 2025—not reused from 2017. Let’s accept that now, for the purposes of this essay. It is not about the authenticity of the picture date. It is about the crowd size.
3. Reported Crowd Size
Local and national reports varied:
- WCVB-TV Boston: “More than 1 million descend on Boston Common for Pride and No Kings rallies.”
- Boston 25 News: “Thousands gather at Boston Common.”
- The Guardian: Estimated 4–6 million nationwide across all rallies.
Even assuming overlapping events, the 1 million figure for Boston alone invites scrutiny.
4. Physical Capacity of Boston Common
- Total area: ≈ 50 acres × 43,560 sq ft = 2,178,000 sq ft
| Density Level | Sq ft / Person | Capacity Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Extremely Packed | 3 | 726,000 |
| Very Tight Crowd | 4 | 544,500 |
| Standard Dense Rally | 6 | 363,000 |
Thus, Boston Common cannot physically hold 1 million people. A realistic upper bound is 400 k–500 k.
5. Comparison: Times Square on New Year’s Eve
Times Square is a known benchmark for high-density gatherings.
- Area: ≈ 500,000 sq ft (≈ 11–12 acres)
- Managed Crowd: 60,000–100,000 people
- Density: ≈ 6.25 sq ft per person
If Boston Common (2.18 M sq ft) were filled at that density:
2,178,000 ÷ 3 = 726,000 people (max)
2,178,000 ÷ 4 = 544,500 people (mid)
2,178,000 ÷ 6 = 363,000 people (low)
This matches the realistic physical estimate above.
6. Population Context
- City of Boston: ≈ 675,647 people
- Greater Boston Metro: ≈ 4,920,000 people
If the rally held 1 million participants: 1,000,000 ÷ 4,920,000= 0.20→20.331,000,000 ÷ 4,920,000 = 0.20 → 20.33% 1,000,000 ÷ 4,920,000 = 0.20→20.33%
If it held 400,000 participants: 400,000÷4,920,000=0.081→8.13400,000 ÷ 4,920,000 = 0.081 → 8.13 % 400,000 ÷ 4,920,000=0.081→8.13
Thus, a one-million crowd would equal 20.33 % of the metro population—implausible for a single-day demonstration—whereas 400,000 equals 8.13 %, a large but believable turnout.
7. Synthesis
| Factor | Observation |
|---|---|
| Photo Authenticity | Genuine 2025 event |
| Available Space | ≈ 2.18 M sq ft |
| Physical Capacity | 350–500 k max |
| Per Capita Share | 8.13 or 20.33 % of metro population |
| Density Check | Matches Times Square (~6 sq ft/person) |
Conclusion: The “million-person” claim likely overstates attendance by a factor of two to three. The physically plausible range is 300 k–500 k.
8. Conclusion
The Boston Common photograph from the No Kings rally is authentic but misrepresented in scale. Spatial analysis, crowd-density benchmarks, and demographic data confirm that a realistic turnout was hundreds of thousands, not a full million.
This illustrates how imagery can magnify perception and how quantitative spatial reasoning helps anchor truth amid viral claims.
Let's Talk About It, Lewis! 